A new poll shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump headed toward primary victories next week in Oregon — and suggests Clinton holds a strong lead over Trump as both pivot toward the November general election.
DHM Research surveyed 901 likely Oregon voters between May 6 and May 9 for OPB and Fox 12. Among Democrats, Clinton led U.S. Sen. Sanders 48 percent to 33 percent. Sanders has attracted adoring crowds at campaign appearances in Portland and Eugene — he’ll speak again Tuesday night in Salem — but the Democratic primary is a closed election. That means only registered Democrats can vote, and may help explain why Clinton leads in the poll.
There was a stark age gap: Among those younger than 45, 64 percent supported Sanders, compared to 20 percent for Clinton. Among those 45 and older, the numbers flip: Clinton has the support from 56 percent of older voters, and Sanders had 25 percent.
Researchers tested two potential turnout scenarios, to see if the race might change if turnout is higher than expected. But even in a higher turnout race, Clinton led Sanders, this time 45 percent to 38 percent.
On the Republican side, 45 percent of likely voters surveyed said they have voted or plan to vote for Trump. Ted Cruz and John Kasich, who both suspended their campaigns last week, had 14 percent each among poll respondents.
But Trump’s fortunes in Oregon may change after the primary: If the general election were held today, 43 percent of poll respondents said they’d vote for Clinton, and 32 percent said they would support Trump.
Those numbers shouldn’t be seen as a ringing endorsement for either candidate, however. Among potential Trump voters, 52 percent said their vote was based more on their dislike of Clinton than Trump’s appeal. Among Clinton supporters, 43 percent said they were supporting her because they dislike him.
Ballots in the Oregon primary due at 8 p.m. on May 17. The margin of error in the DHM Research survey ranged from 5.6 percent in the Democratic primary survey results to 3.3 percent for the general election questions.
source: Oregon Public Broadcasting News, by Anna Griffin, Updated: May 12, 2016